The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable

by Nassim Nicholas Taleb

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The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable

by Nassim Nicholas Taleb


Summary

  • Fallacies- Narrative & Confirmation

    With the narrative fallacy, people want to reduce the content and then make logical connections between the sequence of events that led to the Black Swan events. The Confirmation Fallacy speaks of governments telling what they did, but not sharing what they did not do. To simplify: when people creat

  • Triplet of Opacity 3: The Illusion of Fact

    People tend to believe what they are told by people who have degrees and speak in an authoritarian manner. Often times academics takes matters into their own hands and creates models, spreadsheets, statistics, and tombs of information on how something should have happened, how it did happen, or how

  • Triplet of Opacity 2: Illusion of Understanding

    Then there is an Illusion of Understanding... this is when people have the false sense of security in the belief that comprehending the world and all of its facets can predict how life will unfold. This Illusion of Understanding is probably the greatest precursor to Black Swans. Overconfident in our

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